November 14th, 2013 7:13pm
You know the drill. All scores are derived using a common formula so these projections surprise me just as much as you sometimes!
12. Raider Regiment
Raider Regiment isn’t the highest scoring group, but a fast start leaves them in fairly decent position to hold on to a Finals spot. They have never made DII Finals before, but as of right now they should be able to make it in. They need to be careful though; they haven’t built up enough “insurance” to start missing days.
11. Scouts of South Point
This group is a little bit interchangeable with the 10th place group at this point in the season. While they didn’t make DIII Finals last season, they are currently scoring well enough that a top ten finish isn’t out of the question. They can’t afford any mistakes though; they don’t have enough “insurance” built up to overcome missed days.
10. Supremacy
Supremacy finished with the Silver Medal in DIII one season ago. While they are currently hovering in 22nd, they are quietly moving through the ranks. By the end of the season, they should be one of the groups with a chance to slip into the top ten overall.
9. Kiowan Knights
Kiowan Knights earned the Bronze Medal in DIII last year, and while they are off to a bit of a slow start (they currently rank outside the top twenty-five), they are improving rapidly. At this point, a top ten seems within their reach, and if they pick up the scoring just a little bit, they have a higher ceiling than ninth (they could finish top five depending on what happens).
8. The Common White Marching Band
The next four groups are all tracking very close to one another, and to an extent I view their places as interchangeable. The Common White Marching Band is already ranked in the top ten, and while some groups from behind them are catching up fast, some of the groups ahead are falling rapidly. The Common White Marching Band is looking like a solid top ten contender that could rise to quite a high finish if some breaks go their way.
7. Wrightown HS
Wrightown won the DIII Championship last year, and have an impressive start going in their first season in DII competition. Already ranked in the top twelve, they are scoring well enough that a top five finish could be within their reach. They are the second group in the 5th-8th grouping that I mentioned.
6. Revere Imperials
This group has never made Finals in any Division (this is their fifth season in FMA), but the Revere Imperials currently look like possible outside contenders for a DII Medal. Their score gains aren’t quite as high what some other groups are experiencing, but a high placement early indicates that their scores are high enough to think a top six finish is attainable. This is another group that I could see finishing anywhere from 5th to 8th.
5. Lake Forest
While Lake Forest is only barely ranked inside the top twenty groups, they are jumping scores at incredible rates (and are a mere three points out of the top ten overall). The groups projected from 5th back to 8th are all very tightly bunched, and I could see Lake Forest as far back as 8th, but their early performance is so strong that a top five appearance (and their first Finals trip in any Division) seems quite reasonable.
4. Chicago Sound (Frolicking Unicorns?)
Finished 8th last year in DIII in their first season of competition. This group is advancing rapidly through the ranks, and are one of the dark horse contenders for a DII Medal. A Silver Medal finish would not be surprising in the least, but to do it they’ll have to make up lots of ground on some groups that are improving quicker than even the top DI ensembles.
3. Aspen Marching Band
Aspen is already ranked fairly high in the standings, and they have big score gains to brag about on top of that. While this group finished 4th in DIII last season (their first season in FMA), they are light years ahead of their early scores from Season 29. This group is a contender to finish as high as first depending on how this season shakes out, but there are groups that have been just slightly stronger so far.
2. Anderson Green Devils
This group finished 10th last season in DIII in their first ever competitive season. With nearly four weeks left in the season, they are only about four points away from their Finals score a season ago. A very good start and difficult to beat score gains make the Anderson Green Devils strong contenders for a DII Medal. The biggest hurdle they face in contending for the Championship is how far behind my current Champion pick they are in the standings.
1. Galileo Humpkins
In just their first ever season of full competition, Galileo Humpkins are making quite an impression. Their score gains are remarkable (averaging over a full point every day), and they are quickly moving up the ranks in DII competition. If they continue to perform anywhere near as strong as they have the first week and a half, this group could end up running away with the DII Championship.