September 27th, 2013 4:46pm
Ok, so
1. Sorry for not updating more.
2. Sorry this is only DI. It is very difficult or impossible to do this for DII and DIII so early in the season, but don't worry if you are one of those groups. I have stupid amounts of free time now and I'll be adding DII for the next round, and DIII the round after that.
3. All of these predictions are made by some combination of this seasons scores and last seasons score gains. I've tried to be as fair as possible by using the same formula for every group. I won't reveal the projected scores just yet, but these are the groups I/my math think will be in Finals this season!
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12. Red Devils
The first group I have making Finals is a bit of a wild card, so to speak. Red Devils have been consistently successful when competing, but haven't had a full season of competition since Season 24 (when they finished 7th). However, that was their fifth of five consecutive Finals appearances (and 8th overall). In reality, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this group finish higher than 12th, but as of right now, 12th is where they stand.
11. Red Raiders
Last season, the Red Raiders dominated, winning every competition (and placing 1st overall) until Quarterfinals. This group, who has made Finals ten times in DI, figures to stay in the Finals conversation, but as of right now they don't seem to be in the Medal hunt the way they were a season ago.
10. Hanover Marching Knights
The Hanover Marching Knights made Finals four out of the five seasons from 23-27, but took a step back last year, finishing 14th. They are off to a much better start this season, and look poised to return for their fifth ever DI Finals appearance.
9. The Elites
A terrific start for The Elites! Though they haven't made Finals since Season 25, their fast start (unless I'm mistaken they've never scored so high so early) leaves them in a great position to finish in the top ten on Finals night.
8. Dunkirk Marauders
The Dunkirk Marauders (Season 27 DII Champions) are looking well situated to make a return visit to Finals after their first ever visit in Season 28. While their early scores are not keeping up with their early scores from a season ago, the Marauders are still looking like a top ten group come Finals night. Finishing higher than 8th would not be a surprise, but as of right now this is where they look to be headed.
7. Firebird Pride
Firebird Pride has made Finals six of the last eight seasons, finishing a group best 10th in Season 28. While this group does not currently sit in the top twenty overall, their historical score gains (and their fast start relative to the groups history) indicate that this group could hope to finish in the top six overall if they catch a few breaks.
6. The Marching Figments
This is a group that I think could really play a role as the "spoiler" in Season 29 and finish fifth, or even higher. Their early score gains are difficult or impossible to beat, and they traditionally are one of the groups with the highest score gains over the course of a given season. When you combine those kind of score gains with what is by far their best start in seasons (if not ever), it's not hard to see why The Marching Figments could break in to the top five, and maybe even challenge for a Medal. Assuming they make Finals, The Marching Figments will have their ninth consecutive Finals appearance.
5. The Tullahoma Azure Echo
The question with Tullahoma isn't whether or not they will make Finals (or even whether or not they will finish in the top six). The question is how high can they go? One of only two groups to break a 98.000, their ceiling is as high (if not higher) as any other group. However, they are off to a slow start by their standards, both in terms of raw score and in terms of score gains. They are certainly capable of repeating their Bronze Medal performance from Season 28.
4. Spirit of Westchestertonfieldville
Spirit of Westchestertonfieldville will have the distinction of being the only group to make DI Finals all 29 seasons if they finish 12th or better this season. And why shouldn't they? Arguably the most consistent group in DI marching band (along with The Marching Marchers), expect another rock solid campaign for the band from Iowa. Another Bronze Medal (their fifth if it happens) would not be surprising, and they could climb even higher than that.
3. The Marching Lords
After 27 seasons of making Finals, The Marching Lords missed the top twelve for the first time ever in Season 28. It doesn't look like they are going to repeat that this season. While they still don't seem to be quite where they were in Seasons 24-26 when they pulled a three-peat, this group looks to be on track to bring home a Bronze Medal for the fifth time in Season 29.
2. Silver Falcon Marching Band
The Champions from two seasons ago, Silver Falcon is scoring comparably to their most recent Championship season. The two time (22, 27) DI Champions are certainly capable of bringing home a third Championship in Season 29, and are currently right in the middle of the battle for 1st.
1. Robinson Secondary School Marching Rams
The defending Champions are off to their best ever start, and their scores are increasing at a faster rate than they were last season. This group has finished 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in their last three full seasons of competition (China interfered with two seasons in between), and there doesn't seem to be any reason they shouldn't compete for the Championship yet again.
Good luck everyone!